The thing in favour of these three teams is that by a quirk of the draw the four teams currently entrenched in semi finals positions have to play one another over the course of the next two weeks. Australia plays both England and New Zealand, England plays Australia, New Zealand and India, New Zealand plays Australia and England, and India plays England and New Zealand. Given this is the case, those four teams must face defeat somewhere in their final matches – in theory only one of them could go through undefeated. It means there is a chance of catching them and getting past them if any of those three teams outside the four won all of their remaining matches. However much like those in front of them, they all have a tough road in order of achieve that.
Sri Lanka are on six points, just a game behind England. They have a favourable draw, given they play both South Africa and the West Indies who are out of contention and may be lacking in the fortitude to put up tough game. If they win those two games, they face India on the final day of the preliminary rounds, and by that stage will know if they are a chance of making the finals or not. England and New Zealand will have completed their tournament, and Australia play on the same day. At the start of the tournament I can admit that given the side they had chosen I believed Sri Lanka would finish next to last. They have done well to be in the position they are in, though two washouts may have raised their profile higher than they would have been. Their best chance is if England lose all three of their remaining matches, which at the start of the tournament I’d have found just as unlikely as Sri Lanka still being in the semi-final race at this stage.
Pakistan has been as inconsistent and unpredictable as ever, and yet once again they are still an outside chance of making the finals. Sitting on five points they will need some luck though. A defeat in their next match against New Zealand will rule them out, but a win there and then against Afghanistan would make their final match against Bangladesh one which could well decide the final spot in the semis if other results go their way. It does seem unlikely that 11 points would be enough to squeeze into the semis which is the most Pakistan can reach with three wins. If they beat New Zealand though it will throw a cat amongst the pigeons, especially if the Kiwis then also fall to Australia.
Bangladesh also sit on five points, and also must win all three games to be a finals chance. A win tonight against Afghanistan will leave them with a huge clash against India next Tuesday which they will have to win if they want to be a chance of progressing, which will leave them that final match against Pakistan as above, which could be a final in itself.
It has to be said that it does appear unlikely that any of these three teams can force their way in front of those top four as they sit now. New Zealand is practically safe, while Australia requires only one win from its last three matches to be out of reach. India needs two wins from their last four to be also out of reach of these teams. The only realistic chance for these three teams is to win all three of their games – and that means all of them winning a game against one of the current top four - and for England to lose two of their last three matches. Is that a possibility? Yes. Is it likely? No. Would it be a dream come true to see England miss the finals of the World Cup they are hosting once again? My word yes!
The next few days will help to clear up some of these questions, but for now let’s enjoy the fact that most of these games are still live ones, and can influence finals positions, which will bring out the best of all the players and teams. With three weeks to go, there is still plenty to be excited about, not the least the outside chance of England choking most righteously.
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