Can Cricket Survive England Winning the World Cup?

With the World Cup finally upon us after a long and enjoyable build up, it is becoming morosely likely that we will see England finally come through and become champions of the one day format. The question that needs to be asked about this possibility is this - can cricket survive such an occurrence? 

For decades we have laughed along as England has consistently failed to not only win the World Cup, but in recent years not even come close to qualifying for the finals stage. Don’t pretend you haven’t enjoyed it as much as I have. 

Okay sure, they have made three finals since the World Cup format was introduced back in 1975, but they didn’t win any of them; destroyed by Viv Richards and Joel Garner in 1979, eliminated by Mike Gatting’s reverse paddle in 1987, heartbroken by Inzamam Ul-Haq and Wasim Akram in 1992. 

Since then it has been boundless joy in watching England capitulate at each tournament. In 1999 on home soil they failed to make the Super Six stage on net run rate after Zimbabwe smashed South Africa to get in front of them. In 2003 their decision to not play in Zimbabwe eventually meant they qualified for the Super Six in front of them. Again. In 2007 they reached the Super Eights by defeating Kenya and Canada (yip yip!) but failed to make the semi-finals from this position. In 2011 they reached the quarter final despite losing to Ireland, and were then thrashed by Sri Lanka by 10 wickets. And in 2015 by losing to Bangladesh they again failed to make the quarter final stage.

All of this has been wonderful to watch, more enjoyable even than South Africa’s constant choking at the vital stage of each tournament. But that all looks as though it is about to end. 

On form it is impossible to go past England to win this World Cup. They have been the outstanding ODI team in the world for the past two years, with their belligerent line up battering bowling attacks all over the world. Jason Roy can often be dismissed early, but if he gets to double figures he is almost unstoppable. Jonny Bairstow has become a great foil for him at the top of the order. Joe Root, Eoin Morgan and Ben Stokes are the perfect middle order mainstay, while Jos Buttler has proven to be 'The Finisher’, with his hitting ability breathtaking to watch. For two years we have watched and waited for this line-ups decree of ‘keep going hard no matter what’ to fall over and fail. To this point, it has barely had a stumble.

While the batting line up is electrifying, the bowling attack is almost underrated, and while the job it has done over this period has been somewhat surprising, it has been just as effective. Mark Wood bowling 150kph off about five steps has been a revelation for England, while Liam Plunkett and Chris Woakes have both turned themselves into key bowlers with run conservation and sneaky wicket taking ability. Combined with the all-round batting and spin options of Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid, England has managed to acquire a team that can adapt to any conditions and any game situation without having to change their playing personnel, something that only the best teams can boast. In reserve they still have Tom Curran and Jofra Archer, which gives this team a terrific advantage. 

Can anyone beat England? Of course. India are still hovering. South Africa, despite their own problems in previous World Cups, have the batting and bowling to challenge. New Zealand do as well, and... Australia... maybe... 

But it doesn’t look good. Since the start of 2018 England has won 24 ODI’s and lost 7. This shows that they are not infallible, and perhaps someone out there has worked out a method to beat England’s current winning formula. I would like to think the world will have the last laugh in seven weeks' time. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem likely, and we have to start preparing ourselves for the fact that cricket may never be the same again if England does finally get to call itself Champions of the World.

Creaks Aside, Australia's Cup Defense on Track

With Australia’s final hit out consigned to the history books, can the country’s fans be confident of retaining the trophy that they won at home four years ago, or is it a bridge too far considering what has happened over the past twelve months. Such has been the upheaval within the squad it could perhaps be considered an achievement just to be in the position they are in, which is that Australia are a very good chance of making the semi-final stage without looking like a realistic chance of winning the World Cup itself.

There are creaks within the squad that bely the fact that it is still significantly stronger than any Australian team that has taken the field for an ODI in recent times. The simple act of reintegrating Steve Smith and Dave Warner into the XI does this. Warner is yet to showcase the form he had during the IPL, but Smith has been sublime and looks ready to be the rock at number four throughout the tournament. 

In the absence of Smith and Warner, Glenn Maxwell has rediscovered himself and has been the main thrust within the team, and this is perhaps not an unconnected occurrence. Under Smith as captain and Lehmann as coach, Maxwell’s bowling went from underused to non-existent, and it was very noticeable in the way he was ignored in this fact. He also appeared to be getting mixed messages from the leadership and the selectors in regards to what was expected from him, and it did appear as though he was being forced out for reasons that did not include his performance on the field. Since their departure from those roles, Maxwell has fought his way back, not only exacting a lift in the order from seven to more likely role at number five, but also bowling significant overs and with success, being both economical and as a wicket taker. This change has been plain to see for all, and in some way must come down to the encouragement of both captain Aaron Finch and coach Justin Langer. It is an interesting comparison as to how a talented player can either thrive or wilt under differing leaders. How Maxwell performs his role will be crucial to Australia’s chances over the next month or so.

How the selectors go about choosing Usman Khawaja and Shaun Marsh will be interesting. Both have been excellent in ODI’s over the past twelve months, and both look in good touch right now. However, unless it is decided to abandon Marcus Stoinis as the allrounder at number six, only one of these two left handers can fit into the starting XI. Whoever misses out if this is the case will feel unlucky, but it does appear likely that both will have their chance at some stage through the tournament to be in the team and play their part. 

Alex Carey has shown good signs with the bat, but it will be his glovework that needs to be at its absolute best. Missed chances behind the stumps will be costly in this tournament and he will know he needs to be at 100% throughout when in the field.

The creaks are still within the team, and they will be hoping to iron them out as quickly as possible. Captain Finch is still being dismissed on the back foot in front of the stumps, and though he found form in the UAE against Pakistan that troublesome mode of dismissal is still his Achilles heel. Stoinis has barely scored a run or taken a wicket in months and despite Shane Warne’s backing he needs to deliver if he is to keep his spot in the XI. The third fast bowling spot behind Mitch Starc and Pat Cummins is problematic, with both Nathan Coulter-Nile and Kane Richardson attacking but expensive. NCN is likely to get the chance due to his lower order batting potential but he needs to find some potency to back up his opening partners. Adam Zampa will be the specialist spinner, and needs to be the equal of the other spinners in this competition. Spin will be a major weapon for most teams during this World Cup and if Zampa can be their equal it will propel Australia’s chances of qualifying for the finals to greater heights. With both Maxwell and Smith being used in the warm up games, the chances of Nathan Lyon playing a role here looks to only come down to if the fast bowling second stringers can’t do their job and it is decided he may well fill that void. 

Can Australia win? They can, but it feels unlikely. England look like they hold the fate of the tournament in their hands. India are struggling but perhaps are just biding their time. New Zealand will be strong again, and South Africa just have to find a way of not choking to be a threat. Pakistan look dreadful but are so unpredictable they could cause a surprise. The Windies young kids now have Gayle, Russell and Brathwaite back which can only help them. Bangladesh will cause some damage with their spinners, while Sri Lanka and Afghanistan will be looking to cause some upsets. If Australia hold their nerve and win the games they should they will make the semi-finals. From there, as they have shown before, anything is possible.

* This post was also published on The Roar website here.

Smith Rides the Wave as Favourites Hit a Speedhump

On a day that both of the World Cup favourites were defeated in their warm up matches by two of the three teams that are expected to challenge them, there needs to be a touch of sanity resumed in the conversation. While supporters on both sides are working themselves into a frenzy, the simple fact is that the tournament proper does not start for another four days and these results mean next to nothing.

For Australian fans the sight of Steve Smith batting with ease and controlling the innings throughout is a welcome one. Both he and David Warner were booed to the crease – as they will be all England summer – and one wonders how effective that will be. It may affect the concentration of Warner, who seems the kind of person who wats to shove such criticism down your throat with big shots, but to me if they keep booing Smith, he will score a thousand runs just to prove it won’t affect him. Everything was in place last night – the concerted building of the innings, the concentration through the middle, and then the big shots to accelerate at the end. It looked effortless, and his build up through all of the warm up matches Australia has played has been exceptional. He looks ready.

Australia’s victory means little, with both Morgan and Root not playing for England, and Maxwell, Cummins and Starc sitting out for Australia. Alex Carey’s batting cameo was a welcome sight, though doubt still remains over Stoinis. Oh if only Ashton Turner was in the squad. Jos Buttler confirmed his ability once again. He is my tip as Player of the Tournament. Note that down. What should also be noted is the affect that the two spinners for Australia played. In the modern age of ODI cricket, pace on the ball seems to benefit the batsmen who use it to strike it all over the field. It is spin – good spin, not just part time stuff – that could still be the key to this tournament.

When these two teams meet in the tournament proper, both sides will field vastly different lineups, and this result will count for nothing.

So too the match between India and New Zealand, where the Kiwi seamer put the Indian batting to the sword. India has so far shown a reluctance to have a high profile, hoping to come into the tournament under the radar. The overnight result will bring that to a screaming halt. India lost its last three ODI’s to Australia pre-IPL, and due to the nature of the draw (something I’m sure they manipulated to gain the best lead in) they do not play their first match under the seventh day of the tournament, after which some teams will have already played twice. That match, against perennial chokers South Africa, will be a real test, and if they play like they did last night they are in for a world of hurt. They may feign indifference to last night’s match, but their supporters at home will already be up in arms.

For the Kiwi’s, they still have the Colin Munro problem to assess at the top of the order (and for my two cents worth, he should be batting at five and allowing Tom Latham to open like he does in Test cricket – problem solved), but the sight of their trump cards from the 2015 World Cup in Trent Boult and Tim Southee doing what they do best would have been a pleasing one. They will be right in the mix again, and they look like they are peaking perfectly just like four years ago.

The weekend has offered a little taste of what is to come. There will be upsets – there always are – but one suspects that if everything mostly goes according to plan, then these four teams will be seeing each other again at the back end of the tournament, and those games will be far more intense that what we witnessed into the small hours of this morning.