Australia has just won eight ODI matches in a row. There are lots of things to digest about that statistic.
Firstly is the fact that prior to the third ODI against India, Australia’s record in one day internationals since the beginning of 2018 was abysmal. 18 matches played. 3 wins, 15 losses. They had played against arguably the three best teams in the world only – 10 against England (1 win, 9 losses), 3 against South Africa (1 win, 2 losses) and 5 against India (1 win, 4 losses). One captain had been suspended, and the other was walking a tightrope of poor form. The bowling attack rotated as much as the batting line up. Different plans were utilised, and none were succeeding. Fans were waiting for Smith and Warner’s return, but still wondered if it would make any difference.
Then came the winning streak, eight wins in a row. Three against India who in fairness tinkered with their own line-up to give peripheral players an opportunity. Five more wins against Pakistan who did the same, but still fielded as poorly as they tend to do. Australia won games by setting good totals and defending, and by batting second and chasing the total set for them. They had some luck in these games that contributed to their wins and perhaps didn’t see the best of their opponents. The conditions that the games were played in will bear little resemblance to what they will face in a couple of months in England. But in the lead up to a World Cup, the confidence taken from winning these games and finding a combination that works was more valuable than anything else.
Australia had been trying to follow England’s - and to a lesser degree India’s - batting template in recent times, that being to go hard from the very first ball, and continue to do so regardless of wickets lost. The problem with that was that both England and India didn’t seem to lose as many wickets as Australia did, and Australia was behind the eight ball consistently and their win-loss ratio suffered as a result. Chris Lynn and D’Arcy Short were given their opportunities in this mindset but failed to convert their domestic form to international runs. It could be argued they didn’t get enough chances, but to me they suffered from the fact that the Australian hierarchy eventually came to the conclusion that this method was not in our team’s best interest. No, we had to go back to a more uniform method, one that suited the team we had and their best value.
In doing this, Australia stuck with who and what they knew. Shaun Marsh had been the one shining light with the bat during the past twelve months, and his style is to work the ball around early, and build to a point where he can attack freely later in his innings. Usman Khawaja bats in a similar way, but has worked better when he can take his time before caressing the ball into the gaps to the boundary, before the field is allowed to go back out of the circle. I felt for some time that these two were too similar in style to be maintained in the same ODI team, but they have proven it can work with Khawaja opening and taking advantage of hitting the ball along the ground for four early, and Marsh then coming in and working ones and twos in the same way once the opening ten overs are completed. Complemented by the return to form of Aaron Finch, Australia’s top order has maintained a run rate between 5-6 runs an over in comfort, without taking risks. Perhaps England and India go faster, but Australia has taken this philosophy, and then banked on their middle order to accelerate towards the end.
Enter Glenn Maxwell. Practically ignored by the Smith/Warner/Lehmann era over the previous two years, under the new regime of Finch and Langer he has exploded. Having been shown confidence by his captain and Victorian teammate, Maxwell has scored runs at a blistering pace, and suddenly begun bowling again, keeping the runs down while taking the odd wicket. He has been lifted from number seven to as high as four in the batting order, and is proving to be the match changer/winner that Australia needs. Supported by Peter Handscomb, Marcus Stoinis and Alex Carey, Australia has found the batting format that works for them, and is suddenly winning them cricket matches. The way they bat has been crafted to the strengths of those that have been selected to do their job, and it is working. When it comes to the World Cup, this is a very important point to keep in mind.
The bowling has also been working, though the subcontinent pitches are no doubt helping the twin spin attack being used of Adam Zampa and Nathan Lyon. Whether or not this is sustainable in England is open to question, but the fact that both have been bowling well and doing their job bodes well for when they get their chance during the World Cup.
Australia’s greatest threat to their success comes from which bowlers are now chosen to do the job in the World Cup. Most pundits believe both Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood will come straight into the squad if they are fit in time, but is this the best fit for the team? Hazlewood has played just 6 of the 25 ODI’s since January 2018, for 8 wickets at 35.50 and an economy rate of 5. Starc has played 7 matches, for 11 wickets at 37.36 and an economy rate just over 6. More than their figures, it is the complete lack of matches in this format that is concerning for both bowlers. Both will be underdone if they are chosen. The point on their side is that none of their true contenders such as Jason Behrendorff (7 wickets at 41.42), Kane Richardson (8 at 31.75) or Billy Stanlake (6 at 42.66) has done enough to displace them if they are ruled as fit.
The team though absolutely needs Pat Cummins and Jhye Richardson fit and in that team. Both have played 12 matches in this time period. Cummins has been the leader taking 25 wickets at 20.36 and Richardson 24 wickets at 26.33. Both have been the attacking weapons the team needs if they are to challenge for the World Cup. Nathan Coulter-Nile has also been prominent with 11 wickets at 26.36 from just 6 matches, but injury continues to dog his own chances.
Which all leads us to the question as to who should the selectors choose in their final fifteen player squad. There are going to be some unlucky players, and perhaps some who are also a little fortunate.
If we assume that Australia is going to stick with its current batting philosophy, then the current top seven who have played against Pakistan all must go, and must be the top seven from the first match. The squeeze will come from whether or not Alex Carey is seen to be expendable as wicket-keeper, and instead install Handscomb in that role in order to get another batsman or bowler into the team. That would be very harsh on Carey, who has played all of his 19 internationals in the past twelve months. He looks a comfortable selection at seven, and has just made his first fifty last week. Changing that position would be against everything it appears the team has worked towards in the last four months. Carey should be the keeper, with Handscomb in the squad as batsman only but back-up keeper should anything go wrong.
Both Steve Smith and David Warner look certain to be chosen to make their international returns, and their limited T20 appearances around the world should be enough to have them in shape and ready to go when asked. My belief is that they should not automatically come back into the first XI, as their inclusion would change the way the batsmen have been operating. One can only believe that they will play a part in the tournament, but that doesn’t have to be from the outset. With Finch, Khawaja, Marsh, Handscomb, Maxwell, Stoinis, Carey, Smith and Warner making nine in the squad, there is no room for the wonderfully talented Ashton Turner which is a real shame. It also means that none of Lynn, Short, Matthew Wade or any other batting candidate can come into the squad unless one of these nine is discarded, and this looks very unlikely.
The six bowling slots look to choose themselves, barring injury befalling any of the candidates. Starc and Hazlewood will get their chance if they are passed fit, while Cummins and Jhye Richardson are the other two pacemen at the top of the list. They will be joined by both Zampa and Lyon, which leaves plenty of other bowlers with cases for selection missing the plane. If any of the four pace bowlers doesn’t come up though – and only Cummins at the moment looks a certainty regarding no injury concerns - there is scope for a return. Having been in the squad for the past two months, Coulter-Nile, Behrendorff and Kane Richardson would be in the best seat to grab an available spot. However, the wild card is James Pattinson, whose return from injury once again has been spectacular. He is currently being spoken of as an Ashes certainty, but surely he has a case for inclusion in the World Cup squad as well, with his pace and swing and seam.
If I was choosing the squad, I would be looking for any way possible to fit both Ashton Turner and James Pattinson into the team, because for me they provide the kind of spark that this team needs to lift itself into a World Cup winning team. There is no way to do that without some tough calls, and I think it is unlikely it will happen, but their ability to make something happen from nothing is something I would very much like to see.
Likely squad: Aaron Finch (c), Usman Khawaja, David Warner, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Alex Carey (wk) (vc), Pat Cummins, Mitch Starc, Adam Zampa, Josh Hazlewood, Shaun Marsh, Peter Handscomb, Jhye Richardson, Nathan Lyon.
My squad: Aaron Finch, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Peter Handscomb (wk), Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Ashton Turner, Pat Cummins (vc), Mitch Starc, Jhye Richardson, Adam Zampa, David Warner, Steve Smith, Nathan Lyon, James Pattinson.
